Possible Return Of Swine Flu In Fall Has U.S. Health Officials On Alert

As the H1N1 swine flu virus continues to wax and wane in different parts of the country, U.S. health officials said they were working as fast as possible to learn as much as they can about the novel pathogen before the return of the flu season in the fall.

The reason for the urgency: Some past pandemics were preceded by “herald waves” of a flu strain that surfaced at the end of one flu season, only to return with far greater consequences the next flu season.

“We are mindful that pandemics of influenza have sometimes come in waves,” Dr. Anne Schuchat, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s interim deputy director for science and public health program, said during a Tuesday afternoon news conference. “The very severe 1918 pandemic had a moderate herald wave in the spring and a much more severe second wave in the fall. So that very terrible experience of 1918 is in our minds.”

Some estimates have placed the worldwide death toll from the 1918 outbreak — often referred to as the “Spanish Flu” — as high as 40 million people.

“We are really on a fast track, over the next to eight to 10 weeks, to learn as much as we can as this virus heads to the Southern Hemisphere [where flu season is just beginning] and to strengthen our planning for the surge of illness that we expect to experience here in the fall,” Schuchat added.

Scientists will be looking to see if the H1N1 swine flu virus mutates or becomes resistant to antiviral medications, or is more easily spread among people, she said.

Schuchat said there’s no way to tell now if the H1N1 virus will be more virulent when — and if — it returns to the Northern Hemisphere with the approach of winter. “Whether it will dominate among the seasonal flu viruses or whether it will disappear is not predictable right now,” she said.

To date there have been 7,927 confirmed and probable cases of infection in the United States, the CDC reported Wednesday. Most of the cases have been mild and patients have recovered quickly.

The CDC was reporting 11 deaths linked to the swine flu, and all of the victims had underlying health problems before they were infected.

The World Health Organization said Wednesday that 48 countries have reported 13,398 cases of infection, including 95 deaths, most of them in Mexico, where the outbreak began.

The CDC said last week that progress was being made toward the development of an H1N1 swine flu vaccine, with two promising candidate viruses for use in such a shot. And U.S. Department of Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius said Friday that the federal government was allocating $1 billion to the search for a swine flu vaccine.

In the United States, most cases of the swine flu continue to be no worse than seasonal flu. Testing has found that the swine flu virus remains susceptible to two common antiviral drugs, Tamiflu and Relenza, according to the CDC.

The CDC says some older people may have partial immunity to the H1N1 swine flu virus because of possible exposure to another H1N1 flu strain circulating prior to 1957. So far, 64 percent of cases of swine flu infection in the United States have been among people aged 5 to 24, while only 1 percent involves people over 65, officials said last week.

New Swine Flu Cases Linked To School

More than 40 children confirmed as suffering from swine flu at a school in Britain on Tuesday are responding well to treatment, health authorities said.

The Health Protection Agency (HPA) said a total of 44 cases of swine flu were linked to a primary school in the Handsworth area of Birmingham in central England, and the number is expected to rise in the coming days.

But a spokeswoman for the Agency said none of the total of 50 patients linked to the school — some of which were confirmed last week — had required hospital treatment. They are being given anti-viral medication at home.

In a statement, the Department of Health said all the cases seen in Britain so far were “mild” and that there was no evidence of “widespread community transmission”.

On its website, the 460-pupil Welford Primary School said it had noticed a high number of absences due to illness early last week, and on official advice it closed last Thursday, one day before a scheduled week’s holiday.

The local branch of the HPA said the school was undergoing a “deep clean” before re-opening next week.

The 47 new cases of swine flu cases confirmed on Tuesday — including three cases elsewhere in England — took the total number of confirmed cases in Britain to 184.

According to the latest tally from the World Health Organization, issued on Tuesday, 12,954 people have been infected with A(H1N1) across 46 countries, including 91 who died.

New Flu Cases Linked To Birmingham Primary School

More than 40 children confirmed as suffering from swine flu at a school in Birmingham are responding well to treatment, health officials have said.

The Health Protection Agency (HPA) said a total of 44 cases of swine flu were linked to a primary school in the Handsworth area of Birmingham, and the number is expected to rise in the coming days.

But a spokeswoman for the Agency said none of the total of 50 patients linked to the school — some of which were confirmed last week — had required hospital treatment. They are being given anti-viral medication at home.

In a statement, the Department of Health said all of the 184 cases of swine flu discovered to date were “mild” and that there was no evidence of “widespread community transmission”.

On its website, the 460-pupil Welford Primary School said it had noticed a high number of absences due to illness early last week, and on official advice it closed last Thursday, one day before a scheduled week’s holiday.

The local branch of the HPA said the school was undergoing a “deep clean” before re-opening next week.

The 47 new cases of swine flu cases confirmed on Tuesday — including three cases discovered elsewhere — took the total number of confirmed cases to 184.

According to the latest tally from the World Health Organization, issued on Tuesday, 12,954 people have been infected with A(H1N1) across 46 countries, including 91 who died.